# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 80% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 12:02:06 GMT. 24h change +55.0pp, 24h volume $402.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-basilet-tomljan-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-basilet-tomljan-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T12:02:06.947Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **80¢** (80%) |
| Δ 1h | +22.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +55.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $402.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $404.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Noemi Basiletti and Ajla Tomljanovic in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Noemi Basiletti' if Noemi Basiletti advances against Ajla Tomljanovic.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ajla Tomljanovic' if Ajla Tomljanovic advances against Noemi Basiletti.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 55.0pp in 24h with 8.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc6dd…40ce` — 30,138.654 shares
- `0xd3df…82fa` — 25,595.772 shares
- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 24,426.85 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 22,023 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 19,377.27 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 31,650.985 shares
- `0x3e2f…aaf8` — 24,999.964 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 21,380.932 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 17,783.283 shares
- `0xbe7e…6d00` — 14,484.234 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T23:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T12:01:03.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +78.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-basilet-tomljan-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic — 80% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T12:02:06.947Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-basilet-tomljan-2026-05-06.
```

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