# Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 21:39:40 GMT. 24h change +96.0pp, 24h volume $285.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-birrell-pegula-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-birrell-pegula-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T21:39:40.374Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +96.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $285.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $300.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $308.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Kimberly Birrell and Jessica Pegula in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Kimberly Birrell' if Kimberly Birrell advances against Jessica Pegula.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Kimberly Birrell.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf2ce…5462` — 21,108.79 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 9,920.736 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 9,320.281 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 6,500 shares
- `0xe394…289c` — 4,999.961 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 18,508.351 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 12,739.98 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 9,886.517 shares
- `0x0eab…d4bf` — 8,610 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 4,399.987 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 107 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T14:29:03.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 24¢ |
| Net change | -19.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-birrell-pegula-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T21:39:40.374Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-birrell-pegula-2026-05-24.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*