# Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 64% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 12:05:49 GMT. 24h change +11.5pp, 24h volume $497.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-charaev-korpats-2026-05-14
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-charaev-korpats-2026-05-14
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T12:05:49.533Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **64¢** (64%) |
| Δ 1h | +14.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +11.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $497.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $501.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $100.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alina Charaeva and Tamara Korpatsch in the Paris, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Tamara Korpatsch.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tamara Korpatsch' if Tamara Korpatsch advances against Alina Charaeva.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 11.5pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5fea…78b1` — 34,998.196 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 27,419.15 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 22,222.2 shares
- `0xdbbb…05a8` — 13,802.661 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 9,102.06 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2ce8…4527` — 34,845.101 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 20,488.522 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 17,096.309 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 15,835.829 shares
- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 15,562.22 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T12:05:07.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 81¢ |
| Net change | -12.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-charaev-korpats-2026-05-14` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch — 64% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T12:05:49.533Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-charaev-korpats-2026-05-14.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*