# Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 16:36:04 GMT. 24h change +34.9pp, 24h volume $240.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-charaev-sasnovi-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-charaev-sasnovi-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T16:36:04.014Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +34.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $240.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $240.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $293.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Alina Charaeva and Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Paris, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Aliaksandra Sasnovich' if Aliaksandra Sasnovich advances against Alina Charaeva.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfa20…fd0d` — 31,800 shares
- `0x6a88…b859` — 9,010.28 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 6,927.704 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 2,913.707 shares
- `0x98db…dd17` — 2,011.098 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 10,269.235 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 7,905.737 shares
- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 4,666.112 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 4,319.493 shares
- `0xdbdd…a5de` — 3,943.113 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T16:35:03.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +34.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-charaev-sasnovi-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T16:36:04.014Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-charaev-sasnovi-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*