# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 15:17:41 GMT. 24h change -31.4pp, 24h volume $602.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-cirstea-gauff-2026-05-14
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-cirstea-gauff-2026-05-14
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T15:17:41.367Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -31.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $602.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $622.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $710.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Sorana Cirstea and Coco Gauff in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Coco Gauff.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Sorana Cirstea.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 81%): Probability moved down 31.4pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcd65…ee96` — 26,985.065 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 19,999.758 shares
- `0xd10c…0645` — 17,285.458 shares
- `0x9cb9…32f2` — 13,401.87 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 11,121.832 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbbb…05a8` — 43,722.339 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 30,535 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 27,273 shares
- `0xe8d7…1252` — 23,219.74 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 20,583 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 42 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T15:16:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 35¢ |
| Net change | -31.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-cirstea-gauff-2026-05-14` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T15:17:41.367Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-cirstea-gauff-2026-05-14.
```

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