# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 13:38:20 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $519.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-cirstea-ostapen-2026-05-12
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-cirstea-ostapen-2026-05-12
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T13:38:20.580Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +25.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $519.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $519.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $362.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Sorana Cirstea and Jelena Ostapenko in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Jelena Ostapenko.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jelena Ostapenko' if Jelena Ostapenko advances against Sorana Cirstea.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 87,968.103 shares
- `0xa16a…33a1` — 33,371.28 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 29,051 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 28,999.954 shares
- `0x5530…d38d` — 7,750.6 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 44,409.978 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 34,363.821 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 17,595.601 shares
- `0xe524…d34f` — 10,845.45 shares
- `0xf1bf…492e` — 8,576.905 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 21 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T13:00:06.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +43.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-cirstea-ostapen-2026-05-12` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T13:38:20.580Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-cirstea-ostapen-2026-05-12.
```

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