# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 14:30:44 GMT. 24h change +23.4pp, 24h volume $1.6M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-gauff-jovic-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-gauff-jovic-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T14:30:44.443Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +16.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +23.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.6M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $852.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Iva Jovic in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Iva Jovic.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Iva Jovic' if Iva Jovic advances against Coco Gauff.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 93%): Probability moved up 23.4pp in 24h with 1.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x91ee…c5b8` — 760,466.47 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 43,035.93 shares
- `0x42bd…12ca` — 24,200 shares
- `0xeaf3…e802` — 6,000 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 5,539.55 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 189,999.987 shares
- `0x3b5c…126e` — 91,078.392 shares
- `0xc350…3669` — 60,000 shares
- `0xf3c7…c83b` — 50,000 shares
- `0xa9c4…7433` — 49,999.992 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T23:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T14:30:08.000Z |
| Range | 57¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +22.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-gauff-jovic-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T14:30:44.443Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-gauff-jovic-2026-05-11.
```

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