# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 13:01:17 GMT. 24h change +10.4pp, 24h volume $480.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-gauff-sierra-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-gauff-sierra-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T13:01:17.203Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +10.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $480.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $483.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $325.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Solana Sierra in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Solana Sierra.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Solana Sierra' if Solana Sierra advances against Coco Gauff.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0997…c9f6` — 33,573 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 20,614 shares
- `0x3257…2f3b` — 13,697.699 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 11,216.31 shares
- `0x21c2…1c89` — 9,592 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 63,075.902 shares
- `0x6eb7…a0f1` — 9,877.854 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 8,804.352 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 8,186.361 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 7,130.035 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T12:59:07.000Z |
| Range | 78¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +13.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-gauff-sierra-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T13:01:17.203Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-gauff-sierra-2026-05-09.
```

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