# Jiujiang: Haruka Kaji vs Xinyu Gao

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 08:23:56 GMT. 24h change +73.0pp, 24h volume $128.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kaji-gao-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-kaji-gao-2026-05-04
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T08:23:56.884Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +73.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $128.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $128.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $372.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Haruka Kaji and Xinyu Gao in the Jiujiang, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Haruka Kaji' if Haruka Kaji advances against Xinyu Gao.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Xinyu Gao' if Xinyu Gao advances against Haruka Kaji.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x507e…beae` — 2,234.639 shares
- `0x274e…1d72` — 1,499.843 shares
- `0x8218…b5a9` — 33.33 shares
- `0x7353…a4f0` — 20.002 shares
- `0xe0ac…bd45` — 14.25 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe3d4…2bac` — 11,466.304 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 10,269.903 shares
- `0x0dfa…6bbd` — 10,000 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 8,526.434 shares
- `0xe911…3d4e` — 4,049 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T11:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T06:00:17.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +78.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-kaji-gao-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Jiujiang: Haruka Kaji vs Xinyu Gao — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T08:23:56.884Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kaji-gao-2026-05-04.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*