# Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 11:33:30 GMT. 24h change +31.4pp, 24h volume $290.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kasatki-sonmez-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-kasatki-sonmez-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T11:33:30.329Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +25.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +31.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $290.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $290.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $476.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Zeynep Sonmez in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Zeynep Sonmez.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Zeynep Sonmez' if Zeynep Sonmez advances against Daria Kasatkina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved up 31.4pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf883…cd1f` — 153,878.051 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 21,097.93 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 4,567.72 shares
- `0x1e33…afb3` — 3,703.704 shares
- `0xb763…4a90` — 3,344.46 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x21f3…35e3` — 30,700.59 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 22,895.12 shares
- `0x99f0…9495` — 13,123.1 shares
- `0xdb83…1e50` — 12,390.24 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 11,500.575 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 80 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T11:33:04.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +43.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-kasatki-sonmez-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T11:33:30.329Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kasatki-sonmez-2026-05-24.
```

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