# Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Renata Zarazua

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 11:44:50 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $241.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kessler-zarazua-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-kessler-zarazua-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T11:44:50.179Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $241.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $241.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $175.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between McCartney Kessler and Renata Zarazua in the Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'McCartney Kessler' if McCartney Kessler advances against Renata Zarazua.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Renata Zarazua' if Renata Zarazua advances against McCartney Kessler.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf2ce…5462` — 15,330 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 13,459.962 shares
- `0x3a30…34b1` — 6,933.205 shares
- `0x4064…5f1e` — 1,652.69 shares
- `0x18a4…3a31` — 1,376.726 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 16,884.605 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 6,749.934 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 2,393.439 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 2,199.31 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 2,098.382 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 13 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T00:00:16.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T11:44:06.000Z |
| Range | 42¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +40.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-kessler-zarazua-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Renata Zarazua — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T11:44:50.179Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kessler-zarazua-2026-05-16.
```

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