# Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 76% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 15:40:00 GMT. 24h change -11.0pp, 24h volume $235.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kostyuk-volynet-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-kostyuk-volynet-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T15:40:00.384Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **76¢** (76%) |
| Δ 1h | -10.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $235.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $237.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $66.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Kostyuk and Katie Volynets in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Marta Kostyuk' if Marta Kostyuk advances against Katie Volynets.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Katie Volynets' if Katie Volynets advances against Marta Kostyuk.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 11.0pp in 24h with 3.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdd5e…9040` — 13,191 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 12,553.95 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 10,576.707 shares
- `0x8e52…2320` — 8,529.67 shares
- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 7,072.785 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xae30…079e` — 10,808.158 shares
- `0x99f0…9495` — 6,760.43 shares
- `0x187a…a22b` — 6,572.442 shares
- `0x58b3…653c` — 6,200 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 6,062.253 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 59 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T14:32:04.000Z |
| Range | 54¢ → 88¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-kostyuk-volynet-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets — 76% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T15:40:00.384Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-kostyuk-volynet-2026-05-27.
```

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