# Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 20:07:11 GMT. 24h change +25.4pp, 24h volume $458.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-mboko-bartunk-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-mboko-bartunk-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T20:07:11.086Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +6.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +25.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $458.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $467.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $354.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Victoria Mboko and Nikola Bartunkova in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Victoria Mboko' if Victoria Mboko advances against Nikola Bartunkova.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Victoria Mboko.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 86%): Probability moved up 25.4pp in 24h with 1.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2c33…0563` — 85,809.73 shares
- `0x5966…f804` — 85,804.003 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 44,180.943 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 27,336.711 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 14,373.29 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x37e4…c991` — 149,999.931 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 148,874.059 shares
- `0x363c…4463` — 26,051.881 shares
- `0x1b8f…cca7` — 4,402.556 shares
- `0x4379…2e16` — 2,999.997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 107 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T14:03:05.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 76¢ |
| Net change | +36.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-mboko-bartunk-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T20:07:11.086Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-mboko-bartunk-2026-05-24.
```

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