# Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 21:52:57 GMT. 24h change +27.5pp, 24h volume $402.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-mboko-siniako-2026-05-28
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-mboko-siniako-2026-05-28
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T21:52:57.047Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +47.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +27.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $402.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $416.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $625.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Victoria Mboko and Katerina Siniakova in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Victoria Mboko' if Victoria Mboko advances against Katerina Siniakova.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Victoria Mboko.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved up 27.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 25,405 shares
- `0xb595…5922` — 17,594.25 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 13,715.891 shares
- `0x1eaf…9bf0` — 9,999.949 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 9,944.802 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5af4…a7df` — 15,251.82 shares
- `0x6b91…06c4` — 11,772.436 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 7,363.879 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 7,166.686 shares
- `0x58b3…653c` — 7,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T23:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T21:08:06.000Z |
| Range | 53¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +29.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-mboko-siniako-2026-05-28` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T21:52:57.047Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-mboko-siniako-2026-05-28.
```

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