# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 18:05:07 GMT. 24h change +51.4pp, 24h volume $269.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-osaka-shnaide-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-osaka-shnaide-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T18:05:07.565Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +51.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $269.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $270.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $328.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Diana Shnaider in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Diana Shnaider.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Naomi Osaka.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3555…ba40` — 64,947.49 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 26,740.43 shares
- `0x4eef…3fcb` — 5,912.107 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 4,742.064 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 4,504.75 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 25,926.027 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 11,636.717 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 8,075.38 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 6,905.549 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 5,454.291 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T09:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T18:04:09.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +51.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-osaka-shnaide-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T18:05:07.565Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-osaka-shnaide-2026-05-10.
```

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