# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 13:03:54 GMT. 24h change +6.0pp, 24h volume $361.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-paolini-mertens-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-paolini-mertens-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T13:03:54.504Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | -16.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $361.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $364.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $109.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jasmine Paolini and Elise Mertens in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jasmine Paolini' if Jasmine Paolini advances against Elise Mertens.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Jasmine Paolini.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 81%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -16.0pp vs. 24h +6.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 19,091.722 shares
- `0x8a3a…eb9a` — 12,556.84 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 12,310.735 shares
- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 9,898 shares
- `0x8f76…aea6` — 5,476.861 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 24,975.884 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 15,536.31 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 10,467.464 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 9,999.876 shares
- `0x9d94…017d` — 9,709.783 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T13:03:12.000Z |
| Range | 44¢ → 58¢ |
| Net change | -3.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-paolini-mertens-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T13:03:54.504Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-paolini-mertens-2026-05-09.
```

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