# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Rebeka Masarova

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 14:52:58 GMT. 24h change +15.4pp, 24h volume $181.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pegula-masarov-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pegula-masarov-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T14:52:58.448Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +15.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $181.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $181.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $428.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Rebeka Masarova in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Rebeka Masarova.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Rebeka Masarova' if Rebeka Masarova advances against Jessica Pegula.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 43,497.43 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 21,000.006 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 10,319.82 shares
- `0xe8d7…1252` — 8,941.532 shares
- `0x4900…4a72` — 5,859.4 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 23,411.562 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 21,197.238 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 9,641.801 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 6,423.016 shares
- `0x6832…831f` — 4,836.96 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 33 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T07:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T14:52:05.000Z |
| Range | 54¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +46.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-pegula-masarov-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Rebeka Masarova — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T14:52:58.448Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pegula-masarov-2026-05-10.
```

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