# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 13:52:37 GMT. 24h change -31.4pp, 24h volume $444.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pegula-swiatek-2026-05-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pegula-swiatek-2026-05-13
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T13:52:37.338Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -31.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $444.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $450.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $258.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Iga Swiatek.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Jessica Pegula.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 42,827.83 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 37,112.32 shares
- `0x5af4…a7df` — 16,814.81 shares
- `0xf56b…ac88` — 16,473.37 shares
- `0x51e1…5ec9` — 10,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 43,220.22 shares
- `0x44a1…bd21` — 32,130.384 shares
- `0xf2ce…5462` — 23,293 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 20,998.371 shares
- `0xf519…906b` — 19,999.95 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T13:51:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -51.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-pegula-swiatek-2026-05-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T13:52:37.338Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pegula-swiatek-2026-05-13.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*