# Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 19:21:55 GMT. 24h change +65.0pp, 24h volume $304.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pigossi-llorca-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pigossi-llorca-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T19:21:55.067Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +22.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +65.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $304.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $304.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $161.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Laura Pigossi and Lucia Cortez Llorca in the Istanbul, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Laura Pigossi' if Laura Pigossi advances against Lucia Cortez Llorca.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Lucia Cortez Llorca' if Lucia Cortez Llorca advances against Laura Pigossi.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 94%): Probability moved up 65.0pp in 24h with 1.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0316…e764` — 190.001 shares
- `0xf6f1…7da3` — 77 shares
- `0x9694…b7ad` — 25.66 shares
- `0xb287…1837` — 5.318 shares
- `0x7df0…53fa` — 4.51 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2a67…d370` — 16,449.919 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 16,000.173 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 4,628.817 shares
- `0xa11f…1252` — 3,850 shares
- `0x40e1…65a4` — 3,300 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 26 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T18:00:07.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +63.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-pigossi-llorca-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T19:21:55.067Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pigossi-llorca-2026-05-05.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*