# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 21:41:43 GMT. 24h change +38.5pp, 24h volume $395.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pliskov-maneiro-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pliskov-maneiro-2026-05-05
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T21:41:43.271Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +38.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $395.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $408.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $455.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Pliskova and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Karolina Pliskova' if Karolina Pliskova advances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jessica Bouzas Maneiro' if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advances against Karolina Pliskova.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x13f0…a50f` — 25,420 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 20,522.88 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 12,241.798 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 11,392.736 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 10,416.667 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd1fc…5da8` — 30,000 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 24,999.73 shares
- `0x80be…4dfe` — 19,703.972 shares
- `0x664a…fc5f` — 13,383.429 shares
- `0xfac7…78eb` — 10,300.543 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 54 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T21:40:04.000Z |
| Range | 44¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +43.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-pliskov-maneiro-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T21:41:43.271Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pliskov-maneiro-2026-05-05.
```

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