# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 23:05:44 GMT. 24h change -16.4pp, 24h volume $324.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pliskov-rybakin-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pliskov-rybakin-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T23:05:44.922Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -16.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $324.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $324.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $456.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Pliskova and Elena Rybakina in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 2:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Karolina Pliskova' if Karolina Pliskova advances against Elena Rybakina.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Karolina Pliskova.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 63,446.963 shares
- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 25,069.908 shares
- `0x51e1…5ec9` — 20,250.03 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 14,323.936 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 8,876.732 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 57,197.53 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 30,000.007 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 27,815.084 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 18,329.551 shares
- `0xad10…c665` — 15,700 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 26 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T23:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T23:05:17.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | -16.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-pliskov-rybakin-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T23:05:44.922Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-pliskov-rybakin-2026-05-11.
```

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