# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:53:54 GMT. 24h change -85.5pp, 24h volume $730.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-sabalen-cirstea-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-sabalen-cirstea-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:53:54.313Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -66.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -85.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $730.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $732.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $252.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Sorana Cirstea in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Sorana Cirstea.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Aryna Sabalenka.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 85.5pp in 24h with 2.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x88d1…18da` — 68,999.987 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 22,349.154 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 13,116.873 shares
- `0x8f76…aea6` — 9,142.004 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 8,245.668 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x44a1…bd21` — 50,573.045 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 45,788.787 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 33,586.389 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 22,058.009 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 14,694.39 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:47:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 94¢ |
| Net change | -80.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-sabalen-cirstea-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:53:54.313Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-sabalen-cirstea-2026-05-09.
```

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