# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 22:19:17 GMT. 24h change +6.5pp, 24h volume $311.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-sabalen-krejcik-2026-05-07
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-sabalen-krejcik-2026-05-07
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T22:19:17.976Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $311.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $313.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $399.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Barbora Krejcikova in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Barbora Krejcikova.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Barbora Krejcikova' if Barbora Krejcikova advances against Aryna Sabalenka.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 36,329.527 shares
- `0xf2ce…5462` — 21,200 shares
- `0x0ade…ed94` — 20,931.62 shares
- `0xfa20…fd0d` — 20,280.332 shares
- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 13,114.161 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 25,440.47 shares
- `0x625d…c6a1` — 23,706.872 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 17,531.667 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 11,294.856 shares
- `0x902f…e466` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 55 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T22:19:03.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +52.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-sabalen-krejcik-2026-05-07` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T22:19:17.976Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-sabalen-krejcik-2026-05-07.
```

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