# Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 16:32:59 GMT. 24h change +91.5pp, 24h volume $561.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-starodu-rybakin-2026-05-27
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-starodu-rybakin-2026-05-27
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T16:32:59.312Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +47.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +91.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $561.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $565.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $799.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Starodubtseva and Elena Rybakina in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Yulia Starodubtseva' if Yulia Starodubtseva advances against Elena Rybakina.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Yulia Starodubtseva.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved up 91.5pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 45,103.065 shares
- `0xf3ce…8bc6` — 15,665.35 shares
- `0x32b4…8b21` — 14,986.124 shares
- `0xde9f…d43c` — 11,181.22 shares
- `0x8ae4…273e` — 10,012.977 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4900…4a72` — 40,807.93 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 36,175.609 shares
- `0xc829…cad3` — 8,027.978 shares
- `0x1be7…a6e3` — 7,364.671 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 6,671.722 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-25T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T14:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 80¢ |
| Net change | +68.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-starodu-rybakin-2026-05-27` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T16:32:59.312Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-starodu-rybakin-2026-05-27.
```

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