# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 12:04:51 GMT. 24h change +31.4pp, 24h volume $239.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-svitoli-baptist-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-svitoli-baptist-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T12:04:51.842Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +31.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $239.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $239.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $316.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Elina Svitolina and Hailey Baptiste in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Elina Svitolina' if Elina Svitolina advances against Hailey Baptiste.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Hailey Baptiste' if Hailey Baptiste advances against Elina Svitolina.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfa20…fd0d` — 26,712.94 shares
- `0x38ea…e61a` — 9,500 shares
- `0xe524…d34f` — 7,140.09 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 6,418.427 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 6,190.936 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 21,432.095 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 7,434.727 shares
- `0x3257…2f3b` — 6,000 shares
- `0xe394…289c` — 5,000 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 2,953.42 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 30 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T07:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T11:30:06.000Z |
| Range | 67¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +33.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-svitoli-baptist-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T12:04:51.842Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-svitoli-baptist-2026-05-10.
```

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