# Roland Garros WTA: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 13:51:34 GMT. 24h change -26.5pp, 24h volume $346.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-tomljan-mcnally-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-tomljan-mcnally-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T13:51:34.689Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -26.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $346.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $348.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $299.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ajla Tomljanovic and Caty McNally in the Roland Garros WTA, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ajla Tomljanovic' if Ajla Tomljanovic advances against Caty McNally.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Caty McNally' if Caty McNally advances against Ajla Tomljanovic.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x21f3…35e3` — 12,669.02 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 11,000 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 10,822.897 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 10,056.021 shares
- `0x32b4…8b21` — 7,480.27 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfa20…fd0d` — 24,680.61 shares
- `0x5af4…a7df` — 24,541.69 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 15,480.257 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 13,055.78 shares
- `0x979f…4032` — 6,755.99 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 57 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T05:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T12:33:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 71¢ |
| Net change | -23.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-tomljan-mcnally-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Roland Garros WTA: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T13:51:34.689Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-tomljan-mcnally-2026-05-24.
```

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