# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 16% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:26:58 GMT. 24h change -52.5pp, 24h volume $62.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-trevisa-gibson-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-trevisa-gibson-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:26:58.004Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **16¢** (16%) |
| Δ 1h | -17.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -52.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $62.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $62.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $103.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Martina Trevisan and Talia Gibson in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Martina Trevisan' if Martina Trevisan advances against Talia Gibson.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Talia Gibson' if Talia Gibson advances against Martina Trevisan.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved down 52.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 29,915.015 shares
- `0x2a67…d370` — 14,515.242 shares
- `0x84cb…28ad` — 14,127.633 shares
- `0xca20…7b68` — 10,425.353 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 8,019.536 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x83d2…d196` — 24,582.408 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 23,977.58 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 19,727 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 13,836.52 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 10,433.879 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T15:28:03.000Z |
| Range | 34¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -21.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-trevisa-gibson-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson — 16% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:26:58.004Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-trevisa-gibson-2026-05-05.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*