# Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 10:45:44 GMT. 24h change -8.5pp, 24h volume $328.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-yastrem-maneiro-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-yastrem-maneiro-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T10:45:44.503Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | -48.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $328.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $331.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $42.6K |
| Spread | 8.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Dayana Yastremska and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Parma, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 9:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Dayana Yastremska' if Dayana Yastremska advances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Jessica Bouzas Maneiro' if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advances against Dayana Yastremska.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved down 8.5pp in 24h with 7.7× liquidity turnover.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 15%): Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 18,876.661 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 13,499.89 shares
- `0x8f04…7994` — 5,405.405 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 3,963.531 shares
- `0x5aa9…febe` — 2,103.416 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 32,607.142 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 11,380.723 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 5,840.908 shares
- `0x42c9…9623` — 3,225.224 shares
- `0xdb83…1e50` — 2,581.794 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 36 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T23:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T10:44:08.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 92¢ |
| Net change | -12.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-yastrem-maneiro-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T10:45:44.503Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-yastrem-maneiro-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*