# Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 16:41:18 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $736.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-zhang-navarro-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-zhang-navarro-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T16:41:18.099Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | -63.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $736.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $736.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $59.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Shuai Zhang and Emma Navarro in the Internationaux de Strasbourg, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 7:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Shuai Zhang' if Shuai Zhang advances against Emma Navarro.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' if Emma Navarro advances against Shuai Zhang.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc718…64a8` — 22,550.27 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 14,190.476 shares
- `0xeee9…0752` — 11,484.089 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 9,685.599 shares
- `0xe2e9…1c08` — 7,352.034 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 43,272.507 shares
- `0xef1b…8697` — 26,388.323 shares
- `0x64c5…d255` — 23,424.99 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 16,270.674 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 16,016 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 19 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T23:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T16:09:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 65¢ |
| Net change | -31.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-zhang-navarro-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T16:41:18.099Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-zhang-navarro-2026-05-21.
```

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