# Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 12:53:55 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $4.4M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T12:53:55.652Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.8pp |
| 24h volume | $4.4M |
| Lifetime volume | $4.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $26.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with one or more Iranian government officials by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi and one or more Iranian government officials are present and interact with each other in person.
> 
> An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc6c0…cb26` — 9,000 shares
- `0x4247…91c4` — 6,851.57 shares
- `0x5c90…79f4` — 5,999.994 shares
- `0x4e37…4d2f` — 5,000 shares
- `0x9c01…35ff` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9351…9e4d` — 37,525.951 shares
- `0x3eae…e2ed` — 9,809.9 shares
- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 9,145.77 shares
- `0xb1ca…1705` — 1,986.4 shares
- `0x46e2…f8bb` — 1,800 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T13:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T12:53:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T12:53:55.652Z from https://orrery.me/markets/xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15.
```

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