# Polymarket resolution risk examples: price is not settlement Published: 2026-06-17 Updated: 2026-06-17 Canonical: https://orrery.me/research/polymarket-resolution-risk-examples Markdown: https://orrery.me/research/polymarket-resolution-risk-examples/markdown Resolution risk is easiest to understand through examples. The warning sign is usually not a complex formula; it is a mismatch between price, source, and official settlement state. ## Direct answer - Rail-pinned prices can still be unresolved. - Expired markets can remain source-pending. - Official source wording can be narrower than the market headline. - Related markets can reveal whether a move is event-wide or contract-specific. ## Direct answer Polymarket resolution risk appears when the market price and the settlement state tell different stories. The price may look final, but the source may still be pending, UMA may still be open, the rule may be ambiguous, or related markets may disagree. The safest habit is to read resolution state before interpreting near-rail prices. Orrery surfaces this as a warning because users and agents often cite price faster than settlement can confirm it. ## Example 1: rail-pinned but unresolved A market trades at 99 cents after the public outcome appears obvious. Many users call it resolved. But the official source has not published the final result, or the UMA process has not finalized. The correct readback is high market confidence, not official settlement. This matters for social posts and AI answers. The answer should say the market is near-final in price but still needs settlement confirmation. ## Example 2: expired but source-pending The event window ends, but the source has not yet published the final data. The market is no longer live in the ordinary sense, but it is not settled either. Calling it resolved would be wrong; calling it live would also be wrong. Orrery's derived status should label this middle state clearly. The next action is verify source or wait for settlement, not infer a final outcome from the last traded price. ## Example 3: headline and source do not match cleanly A headline can say 'Will candidate X win?' while the resolution text depends on a particular official certification date. A headline can say 'Will a team win?' while the rule excludes extra time or depends on a specific competition phase. In those cases, the user needs the rule, not the headline. The methodology should add semantic or resolution-risk flags before using the market as evidence. ## Example 4: disputed or challenged settlement A proposed outcome can be challenged. When that happens, market interpretation changes. The price may still imply a likely outcome, but the settlement process has become a source event of its own. A good explanation should name that process and avoid treating the proposal as final. ## Example 5: related markets disagree Two markets can reference the same public event while resolving under different wording. If one moves and the other does not, the difference may be liquidity, timing, or wording. It is not automatically arbitrage. This is why Orrery's 'same event is not same contract' rule belongs next to resolution risk. The market that looks cheapest may simply be a different contract. ## Resolution-risk checklist Before citing a market near settlement, answer five questions: what is the official source, has the source finalized, what is UMA status, does the rule match the headline, and do related markets agree? - If source is missing: label ambiguous. - If price is near a rail but settlement is not final: label rail-pinned unresolved. - If event ended but source has not finalized: label expired unresolved. - If related markets disagree: compare wording before comparing price. - If disputed: explain process state before outcome state. ## FAQ ### What is a simple example of price not settlement? A market trades at 99 cents after an apparent outcome, but the official source or UMA process has not finalized. The price is strong market confidence, not official settlement. ### Can a resolved-looking market still carry risk? Yes. If source wording is ambiguous, the market is disputed, or settlement is pending, the final resolution can still require verification. ### Why do related markets matter for resolution risk? They help identify whether movement is event-wide or contract-specific. Similar headlines can still resolve under different rules. ## Related Orrery resources - [Resolution risk guide](https://orrery.me/research/polymarket-resolution-risk) - [Price is not settlement](https://orrery.me/learn/price-is-not-settlement) - [Same event is not same contract](https://orrery.me/learn/same-event-is-not-same-contract) - [World Cup resolution risk](https://orrery.me/world-cup/resolution-risk) - [Market scanner](https://orrery.me/scanner) Orrery is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.