Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 90%-92%?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

5¢

24h volume

$5.15

Source path

to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official comp

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 5, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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