Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Resolved NO

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

Probability

0¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jan 31, 2025
  • 02UMA status: resolved
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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