Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
2¢
24h volume
$381.41
Source path
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Aug 1, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.