Orrery Resolution Risk

Settlement is still pending.

UMA pending

Price can look final before UMA confirmation. Verify the source before treating it as outcome.

Market

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 19?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Probability

100¢

24h volume

$3.9K

Source path

the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: proposed
  • 02Expiry: Aug 19, 2026
  • 03Check whether UMA has proposed, disputed, or finalized the result.
  • 04Confirm the primary source named by the market rules.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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