Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 8?

Resolves in 30h.

Probability

6¢

24h volume

$228.76

Source path

the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in t

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 8, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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