Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Resolved YES

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

Probability

100¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

to the RCP polling averages for Trump and Harris on the day RFK Jr

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Oct 27, 2024
  • 02UMA status: resolved
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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