Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Iran successfully targets shipping by July 12?

Resolves in 60h.

Probability

19¢

24h volume

$1.7K

Source path

consensus of credible reporting

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 12, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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