Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?

Resolves in 12h.

Probability

13¢

24h volume

$7.2K

Source path

Israeli government

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: May 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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