Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 New York Individual?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

79¢

24h volume

$8.20

Source path

to the listed player who wins the 2026 New York Individual tournament

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 10, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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