Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

82¢

24h volume

$1.2K

Source path

the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in th

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 7, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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