Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

54¢

24h volume

$1.3K

Source path

announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 2, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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