Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

18¢

24h volume

$14.00

Source path

to Progressive's combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings mat

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 15, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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