Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

34¢

24h volume

$1.8K

Source path

Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Apr 16, 2027
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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