Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Resolved NO

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

Probability

0¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between August 25, and September 30, 2024

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Sep 30, 2024
  • 02UMA status: resolved
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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