Orrery Resolution Risk
Source quality now matters more than price.
Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.
Market
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Resolves in 34h.
Probability
30¢
24h volume
$45.1K
Source path
Official government information
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
- 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.