Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution is contested.

UMA disputed

Do not treat the current price as final while the optimistic-oracle path is disputed.

Market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Probability

36¢

24h volume

$577.3K

Source path

consensus of credible reporting

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: disputed
  • 02Expiry: May 29, 2026
  • 03Read the market rule and the UMA dispute path before repeating the outcome.
  • 04Compare sibling markets for wording differences.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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