Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Resolved NO

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

Probability

0¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: May 1, 2021
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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