Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

51¢

24h volume

$14.35

Source path

IMF

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 7, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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