Orrery Resolution Risk
Price is not settlement.
A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.
Market
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Probability
98¢
24h volume
$0.00
Source path
the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Oct 4, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
- 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.